Dodgeville

As we sit through yet another storm, it’s worth remembering what this winter was supposed to be like:

Environment Canada, which issued its winter outlook Friday, says Toronto will be about normal in terms of temperature and precipitation, while The Weather Network, which issued its forecast on Thursday, is calling for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the Toronto area. “We don’t think that,” Environment Canada’s David Phillips said. “They use a different model than we use.”

So reported the Star way back on November 30 (under the hopeful headline “City spared hard winter?”) just a week after we’d dealt with our first snowfall of the season. How did the prognosticators do? Thanks to Environment Canada’s tattletale forecast verification tool, we can tell just how far off they were.

The precipitation forecast was wildly inaccurate for virtually the entire country, with most areas marked in blue for “below average” on the forecast (bottom map on the link) ending up as red for “above average” after actual observations (top map). The temperature forecast was just as inaccurate, with almost everything except for a sliver of the extreme north and a patch of sea between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia ending up colder than normal. The less said about the Weather Network’s forecast the better.

So what’s ahead for the spring? The Weather Network (PDF) and Environment Canada are both telling us to expect normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. If this past winter is any indication of their ability to predict the seasons, you may want to start planning for that spring drought.

I like winter.

No really, I do. I like the crisp air. I like the bright sunshine reflecting off fields of snow. I like seeing my breath.

I like exploring the city in the winter. I like stomping around the Don Valley with boots, gaiters, and snowshoes. I like taking off my toque after a hike and watching the steam rising from my shadow. I like skating. I like watching the wildlife in the backyard and park. I like looking out the front door on a Saturday morning and seeing a fresh snowfall. I like dodging all the piles of snow on side streets that make drivers slow down and be courteous to pedestrians and cyclists. I like stepping in little piles of slush and feeling it squirt out between my boot treads. I like walking through big puddles at intersections with my waterproof boots. I like being the first person to walk on the sidewalk after a storm.

I like shovelling at 2 a.m. after the snow has stopped but before anyone has packed down the sidewalk. I like hearing people say “Thanks,” when they reach the snow-free sidewalk in front of the house. I like watching drivers with summer tires trying to pull out of snowbound parking spots. I like cycling. I like talking to my neighbours about the weather. I like making fun of reporters who raise a huge fuss every time it snows.

I like wrapping my scarf around my face and pulling my toque down to my eyes. I like dressing in layers. I like wearing my lobster gloves. I like putting on long underwear. I like shaking snow off my jacket before I come inside. I like wearing Merino wool socks.

I like curling up on the couch with Risa and a hot chai. I like crawling under the duvet at night. I like rubbing Fletch’s belly while telling him how lucky he is to be an indoor cat.

But seriously, enough is enough. I’ve been ready for a few weeks now to start liking spring again.

The Star published this graphic (available online with the original article or as the second picture in this slideshow) about the proposed Tax-Free Savings Account as part of yesterday’s report on the federal budget. The $30,000 renovation and $15,000 wedding seem like wishful thinking, but no more so than the $10,000 car that doesn’t need replacing for 40 years.

What struck me about the graphic was how neatly it illustrates the effects of life’s big expenses. Of course, for the sake of simplicity, it leaves out major money-drainers like supporting your university-educated children until they’re 35, buying your new hip in the States because you don’t want to wait 12 months in Ontario, and digging your poker-addicted son out of debt.

But what I’d really like to know is who are these people who are still saving $150/month after they retire and hit the road in their new RV? It’s an awfully optimistic view of the average person’s retirement income potential.